Extreme weather risks to maritime activities
The open waters of the Nordic Seas are one of the main breeding grounds of polar lows, intense polar mesocyclones engendering strong winds and intense snowfall that have caused numerous fatal shipwrecks. While polarlow predictability is poor on the subseasonal-to-seasonal (s2s) time scale (10–90 days), the environments in which they form, (marine cold air outbreaks), may be predictable on those time scales: such extreme weather may therefore be predictable, at least in a probabilistic context.
Co-design and co-production
The aim of this task is to create maps that will be tailored to high-level end-users and thus providing practical application of medium-to-long-range prediction of marine cold air outbreaks and polar lows, to limit risks for humans, business activities and the environment in the Arctic.
- Martin King, Uni Research
- Øivin Aarnes, DNV GL
The main results of this case study can be found in these reports:
- Requirements specifications report (D5.11) available in Zenodo